Insights from Infinity » Retail Sales and Prices Confirm What We Already Know

Retail Sales and Prices Confirm What We Already Know

November producer prices dropped more than 2%, but edged up slightly excluding oil, and retail sales fell. The drop in retail sales was somewhat less than expected, buoyed by the push to buy on sale on Black Friday. The data on October retail sales, however, was revised down.

Anyway the data is cut the recession is worsening, and will get worse before it gets better. We are now looking at a contraction of 6-7% in the fourth quarter, and another six to nine months of contraction. Moreover, any gains we do see are not likely to be enough to keep unemployment from rising.

The outlook for 2010 is significantly better, with everything from recent policy measures and the upcoming stimulus accumulating. That is the light at the end of the tunnel, even though the light is still distant.

Courtesy of Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, Mesirow Financial.

Posted on Friday, December 12th, 2008 at 9:41 am. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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Retail Sales and Prices Confirm What We Already Know

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